SAN FRANCISCO — President Donald Trump's administration predicts its barrage of tariffs targeting China will push Apple into manufacturing the iPhone in the United States for the first time.
But that's an unlikely scenario even with U.S tariffs now standing at 145% on products made in China — the country where Apple has manufactured most of its iPhones since the first model hit the market 18 years ago.
The disincentives for Apple shifting its production domestically include a complex supply chain that it began building in China during the 1990s. It would take several years and cost billions of dollars to build new plants in the U.S., and then confront Apple with economic forces that could triple the price of an iPhone, threatening to torpedo sales of its marquee product.
"The concept of making iPhones in the U.S. is a non-starter," asserted Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, reflecting a widely held view in the investment community that tracks Apple's every move.
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He estimated that the current $1,000 price tag for an iPhone made in China, or India, would soar to more than $3,000 if production shifted to the U.S. He believes moving production domestically likely couldn't be done until, at the earliest, 2028.
"Price points would move so dramatically, it's hard to comprehend," he said.
Apple didn't respond to a request for comment. The Cupertino, California, company has yet to publicly discuss its response to Trump's tariffs on China, but the topic could come up on May 1 when Apple CEO Tim Cook is scheduled to field questions from analysts during a quarterly conference call to discuss the company's financial results and strategy.
And there is no doubt the China tariffs will be a hot-button issue given Apple's stock price dropped by 15% and lowered the company's market value by $500 billion since Trump began increasing them on April 2.

Sales staffs work Thursday at an Apple shop in Hanoi, Vietnam.
If the tariffs hold, Apple is widely expected to eventually raise the prices on iPhones and other popular products because the Silicon Valley's supply chain is so heavily concentrated in China, India and other overseas markets caught in the crossfire of the escalating trade war.
The big question is how long Apple might be willing to hold the line on its current prices before the tariffs' toll on the company's profit margins become too much to bear and consumers are asked to shoulder some of the burden.
One of the main reasons that Apple has wiggle room to hold the line on its current iPhone pricing while the China tariffs remain in place is because the company continues to reap huge profit margins from the revenue generated by the subscriptions and other services tied to its product, said Forrester Research analyst Dipanjan Chatterjee.
That division, which collected $96 billion in revenue during Apple's last fiscal year, remains untouched by Trump's tariffs.
"Apple can absorb some of the tariff-induced cost increases without significant financial impact, at least in the short term," Chatterjee said.
Apple tried to appease Trump in February by announcing plans to spend $500 billion and hire 20,000 people in the U.S. through 2028, but none of it was tied to making an iPhone domestically. Instead, Apple pledged to fund a Houston data center for computer servers powering artificial intelligence — a technology the company is expanding into as part of an industrywide craze.
When asked this week about whether Trump believes Apple intends to build iPhones in the U.S., White House Press Secretary Karoline Levitt pointed to Apple's investment promise as evidence that the company thinks it could be done.
"If Apple didn't think the United States could do it, they probably wouldn't have put up that big chunk of change," Leavitt said.
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick also predicted tariffs would force a manufacturing shift during an April 6 appearance on a CBS news program.
"The army of millions and millions of human beings screwing in little screws to make iPhones, that kind of thing is going to come to America," Lutnick said.
But during a 2017 appearance at a conference in China, Cook expressed doubt about whether the U.S. labor pool had enough workers with the vocational skills required to do the painstaking and tedious work that Lutnick was discussing.
"In the U.S. you could have a meeting of tooling engineers and I'm not sure we could fill the room," Cook said. "In China, you could fill multiple football fields."
Trump also tried to pressure Apple, to no avail, into shifting iPhone production to the U.S. during his first term as president. The administration ultimately exempted the iPhone from the tariffs he imposed on China back then — a period when Apple announced a commitment to invest $350 billion in the U.S.
Trump's first-term tariffs on China also prompted Apple to begin a process that led to some of its current iPhones being made in India and some of its other products being manufactured in Vietnam.
Cook also took the president on a 2019 tour of a Texas plant where Apple assembled some of its Mac computers since 2013. Shortly after finishing that our, Trump took credit for the plant that Apple opened while Barack Obama was president.
"Today I opened a major Apple Manufacturing plant in Texas that will bring high paying jobs back to America," Trump posted on Nov. 19, 2019.
From the BlackBerry to the iPhone: The most popular phones over the past 20 years
From the BlackBerry to the iPhone: The most popular phones over the past 20 years

As the holiday shopping season approaches, one perennial gift—cellphones—is more popular than ever. own a cellphone of some sort, according to a January 2024 Pew Research Center mobile study. Nine in 10 Americans own a smartphone, a number expected to rise this year.
This year, the iPhone 16, which Apple introduced on Sept. 20, is already generating buzz among holiday shoppers. The new model boasts a dedicated shutter button for higher-quality photos and a faster processor that supports Apple Intelligence features, which include AI-generated images and ChatGPT integrated with Siri.
New phones, and tech in general, have long been popular holiday gifts. Some consumers may line up when a new model drops, but others tend to wait for the holidays to give—or receive—a newer, pricier phone.
In years past, Apple has seen a post-holiday season sales spike. Strong first-weekend sales after a new iPhone is unveiled have predicted robust holiday sales. The National Retail Federation from last year's holiday sales, putting sales projections at an all-time high. These indicators suggest mobile sales will soar.
Mobile sales rebounded this year after a in 2023, year over year during the first quarter of 2024, according to the International Data Corporation.
Mobile phones have drastically changed in style and appearance, hardware, and functionality since they became widely available in the early 2000s. Even the BlackBerry, once considered high-tech, might look like ancient history now compared to sleek and speedy new models.
reviewed marketing studies and historical sources to find the most popular phones over the past 20 years and their place in the timeline.
How cellphones have changed over time

When the first cellphone prototype debuted in 1973, it was a large, bulky block that could hardly be called convenient. The Motorola DynaTAC—or "the brick," as it was dotingly called by its inventors—weighed about 2.5 pounds and took 10 hours to charge for only 35 minutes of usage.
However, it took decades for cellphones to be accessible to everyday consumers. By the early 2000s, cellphones evolved into pocket-sized portables with more features and personalization options than their predecessors. The iconic Nokia 1110, unveiled in 2003, targeted populations in emerging markets like Russia and China at the time. Despite its discontinuation in 2009, it remains the bestselling cellphone of all time.
Other phones that gained popularity early on include the Motorola Razr, which had a distinctly sleek design in vibrant colors like bright blue and candy pink. In 2002, with the launch of the game-changing BlackBerry 5810, cellphones made a leap in functionality. With a calendar, full keyboard, and internet access, the double-thumbed typing popularized the BlackBerry first among the business class, and then among the wider population.
Over time, cellphones got slimmer and smarter, and features expanded to include web browsing, music, and games. However, when the first iPhone was released in 2007, it shifted the cellphone market—and the culture surrounding it. Today, out of the 15 bestselling phones, nearly half of them are iPhones.
Apple is credited with popularizing touchscreen phones and digital storefronts like the App Store. The iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus are the second-bestselling phones of all time, just behind the Nokia 1110. The newest iPhones on the list are the iPhone 11, iPhone 11 Pro, and iPhone 11 Pro Max.
Since 2004, Nokia, Samsung, and Apple have dominated the mobile phone market. Though Samsung only has one phone on the bestseller list, it holds the largest global market share and has the most global shipments The Samsung E1100 stands out for its durability and battery life, similar to Nokia phones, which still maintain a reputation of affordability and durability.
Read on to see which mobile phones were the most popular over the past two decades.
#14. Nokia 1600 (1650/1661) (tie)

- Year released: 2005
- Total units sold: 130M
#14. Motorola RAZR V3 (tie)

- Year released: 2004
- Total units sold: 130M
#13. Nokia 2600 (2610/2626/2630)

- Year released: 2004
- Total units sold: 135M
#12. Apple iPhone 5

- Year released: 2012
- Total units sold: 146.2M
#9. Samsung E1100 (tie)

- Year released: 2009
- Total units sold: 150M
#9. Nokia 1200 (tie)

- Year released: 2007
- Total units sold: 150M
#8. Apple iPhone XR, iPhone XS, and iPhone XS Max

- Year released: 2018
- Total units sold: 151.1M
#7. Apple iPhone 11, iPhone 11 Pro, and iPhone 11 Pro Max

- Year released: 2019
- Total units sold: 159.2M
#6. Apple iPhone 7 and iPhone 7 Plus

- Year released: 2016
- Total units sold: 159.9M
#5. Apple iPhone 5S

- Year released: 2013
- Total units sold: 164.5M
#4. Apple iPhone 6S and iPhone 6S Plus

- Year released: 2015
- Total units sold: 174.1M
#3. Nokia 105 series

- Year released: 2013
- Total units sold: 200M
#1. Nokia 1110

- Year released: 2005
- Total units sold: 247.5M
Story editing by Alizah Salario. Additional editing by Kelly Glass. Copy editing by Paris Close.
originally appeared on and was produced and distributed in partnership with Stacker Studio.
#9. Nokia 5230 (tie)

- Year released: 2009
- Total units sold: 150M
#2. Apple iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus

- Year released: 2014
- Total units sold: 222.4M